MARKET REGIME NOW

Risk-off

Momentum and participation currently favour capital preservation.

regime evidence from our own market database, updated 34 seconds ago.

Composite score-39.9

Risk-offNeutralRisk-on

Spot momentum-18.1

BTC −3.1% over 24h

−4.9% over seven days

Market breadth-23.7

10% advancing

115 liquid assets measured

Volatility+4

+3.7% realised

BTC hourly movement over 24h

Derivatives-2.1

+4.5% funding APR

$37.7B open interest · −0.05% basis

THE EVIDENCE

What moved the classification

No model opinion

Momentum−3.1%

BTC composite movement across the preceding 24 hours.

Participation10%

Share of liquid non-stablecoin assets with a positive 24-hour move.

Leverage$37.7B

Confirmed USDT perpetual open interest measured across venues.

Positioning cost+4.5%

Open-interest-weighted current funding, annualised for comparison.

CLASSIFICATION RULES

Strong prices alone cannot produce “overheated”

A score of +18 marks Risk-on and −22 marks Risk-off. Overheated requires a score of at least +42 plus rising 24-hour open interest, funding above +12% APR and a positive perpetual basis. Until a full day of OI history exists, that stricter state cannot trigger. Every input is collected and timestamped by CryptoTrades.